The endorsement of Bola Oyebamiji by former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola and some PDP figures was designed to create the impression of a major political shift. In reality, its impact on Governor Ademola Adeleke’s chances may be more limited than the headlines suggest.

Adeleke’s strength has never depended on the old PDP establishment that Oyinlola represents. His 2022 victory was built on a different foundation: direct popularity, especially among young voters, market women, artisans, and rural communities that responded to his informal style and welfare-focused messaging. That base has not shown clear signs of collapse.

Incumbency still matters in Osun. Adeleke controls the state structure, local government influence, and the visibility that comes with being in office. While some former PDP leaders feel excluded, many current office holders, local leaders, and beneficiaries of the administration remain firmly in his camp. The Accord Party may be new, but the network around the governor is not.

There is also a credibility question around the Oyinlola group’s move. Many voters still remember the internal battles that weakened the PDP in Osun over the years. When politicians who lost relevance suddenly reappear days before an election to endorse the opposition, a section of the public views it as elite bargaining rather than a genuine reflection of popular will.

Adeleke’s campaign has consistently framed the election as a choice between continuity and a return to the old political order.

The Oyinlola endorsement, ironically, helps that message. It allows the governor’s team to present Oyebamiji as the candidate of recycled politicians rather than a fresh alternative.

The race remains competitive. APC has a strong structure, and Oyebamiji is a contender. But the idea that one endorsement from a faction of the old PDP has tilted the election is an overstatement.

In Osun, elections are still decided by who controls the streets, the polling units, and the trust of ordinary voters — not only by who wins the support of former governors.

As the state heads into the final days of campaigning, Adeleke’s real test is not Oyinlola’s statement. It is whether his existing support base still believes he deserves a second term.